As the Handheld World Changes, Nintendo Strikes Back
Posted by Giant Bomb Jul 29 2011 14:00 GMT in PilotWings Resort
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Dusty 'n with a dead battery, the current state a most people's 3DS machines. Including mine.

No one can say Nintendo isn't taking the tepid response t' the 3DS seriously. The cost a buying a brand-new 3DS will drop from $249.99 t' $169.99 on August 12, effectively slashing the retail price nearly $100 almost six months after launch.

"At $169.99, the 3DS be now an incredible value t' both gamers 'n consumers," said EEDAR analyst Jesse Divinich over email t' me today. "I think it be safe t' say we be unlikely t' see another 3DS price cut anytime soon, 'n the fate a the 3DS hardware will now solely rest on the quality a content. Content, I believe, will shine this holiday season."

The DS launched on November 21, 2004. By the end a March, Nintendo had sold 5.27 million units worldwide. Nintendo has pushed 4.32 million 3DS units in roughly the same timeframe, but it be crucial t' note that be without the benefit a the holidays.

3DS' future will be better judged after Christmas.

The biggest release so far has been a remake, while the next major release be...the same thing.

In the meantime, content be something 3DS has been sorely lacking. The no-glasses 3D trick be not enough t' convince consumers en masse that 3DS be worth picking up at $249.99, with games like Pilotwings Resort 'n Super Street Fighter IV leading the software charge. Last month's The Legend a Zelda: Ocarina a Time 3D be the first substantial release from Nintendo since the hardware's late March launch.

Sluggish hardware sales have prompted publishers t' start quietly pushing content back, in fact. Sega had planned t' release both Crush 3D 'n Shinobi in September, then suddenly announced both would be pushed back several months, with Shinobi not arriving until 2012.

Alongside the price cut, Nintendo confirmed release months for Super Mario 3D Land (November) 'n Mario Kart 7 (December).

"Nintendo plans t' release some a it be best content for the 3DS this holiday season 'n as long as consumers agree," said Divinich, "I foresee no reason t' doubt a Nintendo turn-around this holiday season."

"As long as consumers agree" be the key issue. Nintendo can pillage away with charging $39.99 for it be releases, thanks t' brand recognition for it be characters 'n franchises. The problem third-parties have always struggled with on Nintendo platforms in the modern age be competing with Nintendo's tent-poles.

Complicating matters be the rise a the smartphone as a reliable on-the-go gaming machine. Consumers expect t' pay less for mobile entertainment now. Dollar games be plentiful on Apple's App Store, 'n some a them be terrific.

Epic Games made $10 million off Infinity Blade 'n nothing off BulletStorm. Guess which be cheaper t' make?

There may be more substance t' Nintendo's creations, but what's the threshold a "good enough"?

The race t' the bottom be challenged by Nintendo president Satoru Iwata at this year's Game Developers Conference, where he encouraged developers t' continue t' assign value t' their work.

“The objectives a smartphones 'n social network platforms be not at all like ours," he said.

At the same time Iwata be speaking, Apple CEO Steve Jobs be literally across the street announcing the iPad 2, 'n revealing Apple had paid developers more than $2 billion through App Store sales.

Iwata asked developers t' avoid the race t' the bottom common on iOS 'n social platforms.

"What I wanted t' argue most be that video game developers need t' be careful about 'preserving the value a video games' so that the video game industry, regarded as valuable by many people, can be sustainable," said Iwata, reflecting a few months later.

Combined with Facebook's games explosion, the expectations from consumers for games has changed completely.

"Consoles used t' be 80% a the industry as recently as 2000," said Electronic Arts CEO John Riccitiello in an interview with Industry Gamers. "Consoles today be 40% a the game industry, so what do we really have? We have a new hardware platform 'n we’re putting out software every 90 days. Our fastest growing platform be the iPad right now 'n that didn’t exist 18 months ago."

Nintendo has been slow t' encourage development on the eShop, mostly relying on it be existing DSiWare catalog 'n a steady release a revamped "3D Classics." Nintendo's storefront be a better experience on 3DS, but it be hardly the App Store in breadth or ease a use. There be rarely sales on the eShop, let alone demos. Many iOS games happily play with price points t' spur attention, 'n if ye're just looking t' download a bunch a apps t' play with, there's an entire free section t' explore.

Free doesn't exist in Iwata's wheelhouse (unless ye're talking about Virtual Console games t' early adopters, anyway).

I'd love t' download a bunch a experimental 3D projects for a buck on me 3DS, wouldn't ye?

On WiiWare, Nintendo at one point made a big deal because a small slice a games be honored with the ability t' have a demo--temporarily. They eventually disappeared. that be not a way t' encourage people t' experiment with their dollars.

One a the more immediate questions outside a Nintendo's financial sphere be how the 3DS price drop will affect Sony's PSP successor, Vita. The industry welcomed Sony's decision t' price match 3DS at $249.99 for the cheapest Vita model, 'n it be unclear whether Sony will be able t' adjust any lower.

Sony did not return me request for comment on the 3DS price drop.

Sony found a way t' price VIta at $249.99, but will they find a way t' slice away at the price more?

"This price cut does put the Vita in a tough position," said Divinich. "Not t' sound like a broken record, but it all comes down t' the content 'n if the Vita can deliver a library a high quality entertainment products, it best be able t' thrive at the $249 price point."

The reason Nintendo dropped t' $169.99 specifically may have more t' do with margins. Bloomberg Japan reports that Nintendo will be taking a loss on each 3DS sold going forward. One a Nintendo's hallmarks be it be ability t' turn a profit on all hardware on day one, so whatever the sales outcome a the platform, at least the company be making money. Not anymore.

"I would suspect that the 3DS be now being sold at near break-even for Nintendo," said Divinich.

Given that Nintendo's reporting it be first quarterly loss ever today, all bets be off.

'n while no one will question whether Nintendo's move today be bold, will it be enough?

Iwata traditionally speaks t' investors right after a financial report. We best know more about what Nintendo's thinking soon.


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